Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility.[7] The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[8] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent.
Black Swan Game Fixes
However, in 1697, Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia.[citation needed] The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.[9]
According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.[11][12]
The practical aim of Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict events which are unpredictable, but to build robustness against negative events while still exploiting positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to unpredictable losses. On the subject of business, and quantitative finance in particular, Taleb critiques the widespread use of the normal distribution model employed in financial engineering, calling it a Great Intellectual Fraud. Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.
Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".[14]
Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".[15]
Whether environmental, economic, political, societal, or technological in nature, individual black swan events are impossible to predict, but they regularly occur somewhere and affect someone. Some observers argue that the frequency of these events is increasing; others say global communication networks have simply made us more aware of them than we were in the past.
In any case, with the rise of global business, it is likely that black swans carry increased risks for your company, including negative impacts on your customers, suppliers, partners, assets, operations, employees, and shareholders. Today, not only can a catastrophe in one part of the world affect the sourcing, manufacture, shipping, and sale of products locally, but the interconnections of global financial, economic, and political networks ensure that the effects of such events ripple around the world.
2.Creating the disrupter list. The key to creating a list of potential black swan events is to cast a wide net by cataloging possible catastrophic environmental, economic, political, societal, and technological events. The team should add much more to the list than ERM typically does, and continue until the net is wide enough to include representatives of as many different black swan categories as possible.
After the long list is compiled, the events are categorized by the type of impact they might have on the business. The result is a shorter, more workable synthesis that encapsulates the black swan events that could threaten the company.
No company can be completely prepared for every possible black swan event. But the board, the executive team, and the ERM staff can complement the day-to-day work of the ERM function with periodic disrupter analyses. These analyses can ensure that the company has adequately focused its attention on high-magnitude, low-frequency events, performed stress tests on its fitness in the face of such events, and prepared itself for unexpected catastrophes.
Back in 16th century Europe, people use the term black Swan as a metaphorical way of describing something that was considered to be impossible, because in 16th century Europe, there was only one kind of Swan in existence, a white Swan. So the idea of a black Swan was considered ridiculous and preposterous. That is until European explorers actually discovered black swans over in Australia. As it turns out, black swans are real. It was shocking, unthinkable. Something that was once considered to be unquestionably impossible suddenly turned out to be true. It was a mind bending game-changing piece of information.
Michael Burry, a former medical doctor turned hedge fund manager, discovered a black Swan piece of information after he spent countless hours analyzing the U.S housing market, specifically subprime mortgages. He discovered that the housing market was built on a crumbling sandy foundation. This was a black Swan and unexpected game changing piece of information. Burry correctly predicted that the housing market would crash hard, which it eventually did in 2008.
In the years prior to 2008 the U.S housing market was considered by most to be a relatively safe, rock solid investment. But as it turns out, in hindsight, most people were wrong. This true story of Michael Burry's dramatic foresight was later popularized in the 2015 film The Big Short. Sabrina's story from earlier provides another good illustration of why it's so important to look for and uncover black swans in accountability conversations, rather than jumping to conclusions. in the end, Sabrina was successful in discovering her black Swan, which in this case was the existence of a diamond engagement ring, but at what cost? Her discovery came too late, and by then the damage was already done.
An important milestone on the path towards successful accountability is finding the truth and diagnosing the root cause of what's really going on. Of course, the ultimate goal is to solve the problem and get results, but chances are you won't be able to design an effective solution until after you discover and diagnose those hidden black swans that may lie at the root of the problem.
A few years ago in Utah, under the shadow of the Wasatch Front on Great Salt Lake, I hunted and killed a tundra swan. Two years later I hunted and shot black swans near Christchurch, in New Zealand. Now I could write about these hunts as if they were any other, but that would ignore the simple fact that in Western culture hunting and eating swans is something of a fringe activity, to put it mildly.
my experience with a young black swan was a disappointment mostly due to expectations. Having the idea what a special bird it is etc, the young bird had a small breast which was obviously disappointing although the entire bird was already larger than an ordinary duck. I thought the legs tasked a bit like a duck but are different, while the breasts tasted like mutton birds! which was the disappointment. 2ff7e9595c
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